Alert Levels Rise as Mayon, Philippines’ Most Active Volcano, Spews Lava: Local Communities Prepared for Potential Evacuation Amid Eruption Threat

Located in the northeastern region of Albay province in the Philippines, Mayon, the country’s most active volcano, has begun to show signs of increased volcanic activity. In recent days, Mayon has been belching out red-hot lava emissions down its slopes, casting an ominous glow in the night sky and causing thousands of local residents to prepare for the possibility of a sudden, violent eruption. It’s a scene that is as awe-inspiring as it is concerning, a vivid reminder of the raw and untamed power of nature.

Increased Volcanic Activity and Evacuation Preparedness

Since the early signs of renewed unrest last week, more than 12,000 villagers from primarily poor farming communities within a 6-kilometer radius of Mayon’s crater have been evacuated. The state of Albay was even placed under a state of calamity to facilitate the faster disbursement of emergency funds in anticipation of a major eruption. However, thousands still remain within the permanent danger zone beneath Mayon, an area that has been declared off-limits due to the inherent risks of volcanic activity.

Latest information we found regarding the current state of the Mayon Volcano

1. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has provided four eruption scenarios for the Mayon Volcano given its current state of unrest. These range from maintaining Alert Level 3, two scenarios leading to Alert Level 4, and a worst-case scenario leading to Alert Level 5, which could involve an explosive eruption with high-intensity lava fountains, long lava flows, and pyroclastic density currents that could go beyond the permanent danger zone​¹​.
2. As of the latest update, the volcano is showing signs of a possible “hazardous” eruption soon. Authorities have begun evacuating villagers living inside the 6-kilometer permanent danger zone around the volcano. The provincial government of Albay has also declared a state of calamity in preparation for potential relief operations once a major eruption occurs. Phivolcs is further assessing the volcano’s behavior before raising the alert status from the current Level 3 to Level 4, which would indicate a hazardous eruption​²​.
3. Over 18,000 residents within the 6-kilometer permanent danger zone are being evacuated. At least 50 barangay in the towns of Camalig, Daraga, Sto. Domingo, Guinobatan, Malilipot, and the cities of Tabaco and Ligao are expected to be affected if Mayon erupts. The Philippine Red Cross (PRC) is deploying resources to Albay to assist with evacuation efforts​²​.
4. The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) is also preparing for the potential eruption by prepositioning 102,000 family food packs in warehouses close to areas that have been impacted by past Mayon eruptions. Other government officials and organizations are also working together to ensure that relief items are prepared for the possible calamity​²​.
5. The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) has heightened their monitoring and close coordination with local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Councils and support agencies to ensure the safety of the communities around Mayon and Taal Volcano, which has also shown signs of restiveness​²​.

Please note that due to the real-time nature of the situation, the status of the Mayon Volcano may change rapidly, and the information I’ve provided is based on the most recent data I could access. I recommend regularly checking updates from trusted news sources and local authorities for the latest information.

Four Potential Eruption Scenarios

According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), there are four potential eruption scenarios that could unfold given the current state of unrest at Mayon. Each scenario is tied to a specific alert level, with the most severe scenario leading to the declaration of Alert Level 5, the highest level of alert that can be raised in such situations.

• Scenario A (Alert Level 3): If the current rate of lava extrusion and low-level parameters persist, we can expect a slow lava dome and short lava flow extrusion, similar to the 2014 eruption of Mayon. This activity could last a few months.
• Scenario B (Alert Level 4): Should there be an increase in extrusion rates, higher SO2 emission levels, low-level tremors, and a cycle of swelling and unswelling of the edifice, a slow but sustained lava extrusion similar to Mayon’s 2006 eruption could occur. This activity could also last a few months.
• Scenario C (Alert Level 4): If data shows significant hikes in SO2 emission, increased seismicity, and inflation of the entire edifice, there could be lava fountains, occasional explosions, and pyroclastic density currents within the 6-kilometer permanent danger zone. This scenario mirrors Mayon’s 2018 eruption and could persist for a few months.
• Scenario D (Alert Level 5): In the worst-case scenario, a rapid escalation or sudden drop in SO2 levels, combined with a surge in volcanic earthquakes and ground deformation, may lead to an explosive eruption. This could result in high-intensity lava fountains, long lava flows, and pyroclastic density currents that could extend beyond the permanent danger zone. This activity may last from a few days to weeks, reminiscent of the volcano’s eruption in 2000.

At the time of writing, new lava is slowly flowing out of Mayon’s summit, and SO2 emission is moderately elevated, while seismic and ground deformation parameters remain low. Despite the uncertainty of the situation, it is clear that the possibility of a hazardous eruption in the coming weeks or even days cannot be ruled out. As such, Phivolcs maintains that the threat of an eruption is real and imminent, necessitating vigilance and preparedness on the part of the local communities and the government.

Conclusion: The Impending Threat and the Call to Action

As Mayon continues to rumble and spew out lava, the people of Albay province stand ready to face the challenges ahead. The local government, alongside Phivolcs, is vigilantly monitoring the situation while ensuring that evacuation plans are in place. As we all watch and wait, we are reminded of the power of nature and the resilience of the human spirit. This ongoing volcanic activity serves as a testament to the dynamic and ever-changing nature of our planet.